Evaluation of land use change, modeling and prediction of areas susceptible to physical development of the city (Case Study: Nurabad Mamasani Town)

Natural parameters are one of the main determinants of the physical development of cities and settlements. In a mountainous area, the effects of these factors have become a barrier to development and can have natural hazards. In this research, it is tried to identify the optimal directions of physical development of the city of Nurabad as a relatively high region by identifying its effective factors and evaluating it. To achieve this, seven effective indicators (elevation, gradient, gradient direction, lithology, distance from the fault, distance from the waterway) were used and to assess, model, and predict areas suitable for physical development of the city from Landsat satellite imagery and Models of FUZZY-AHP and Makov and Markov's predictions have been used. So that each of the layers is fuzzy according to the fuzzy membership functions in GIS Arc 10.3 software. An analytical comparison on the appropriate areas of the city based on the critical points with the appropriate zones. Finally, the final map with the two models was classified into five classes. The results of the research showed that up to 1404 horizons of the city were developed eastwards in Although this pathway is not a suitable route, due to the existence of the main Kazeroun fault and the main waterway, the most important risk factors in the city are considered to be the best place for the development of the city of the western and southwestern regions of the region, which is 13% of the area of ​​the basin Includes.